hi everyone,
so Emily cant read this post..... sooooo shu Emily shuu.. your mom will get mad at me... and thats the last thing that i want.... unable to come back to the states for fear of Leslie
ok shes gone?
anyways i was in bio class today and i learned the most incredible thing! banoboes, they are are relatives of chimps, perform sexual acts in lieu of physical violence. if the alpha male is upset, other males lower on the social ladder will come over and have mock sex with him. how crazy is that! as my teacher said in class today, "its a true John Lennon society." make love not war man. this is in contrast to chimp societies where the alpha male basically runs a muck if he gets pissed offed, breaking trees and running around screaming.
and possibly the best part, i saved it for last, is that if the whole pack of banoboes get all excited and agitated, two females will actually start miming sex with each other to calm the crew down.... ya i know... i know... (insert inappropriate comment here)
anyways, i have to write a paper on biology, evolutionary factors, and such. i know i have a few biologists reading this blog (AJ, Sarah, Riley, Becky and kim (kinda), Dave (you kinda count but i dont know about the reading) do you guys have any good ideas? anything that you have studied that might make for an interesting paper?
Friday, November 30, 2007
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
and the huffington post
hey everyone.
this is a post i wanted to put up as a reply to somebody on huffington post but my account isnt activated yet. sooo im putting it here.
Atticus
I think you make a good point about the NPV of the principle of the bonds the US is taking out to fund its ongoing operations, but I think it is very dangerous to dismiss the cost of debt outright. While the final repayment of the principle of long term bonds may be significantly reduced in comparison to present value in real terms, we are also paying interest on those bonds at all times. Without these interest payments, bonds would have a negative net present value and there would be no reason for people to invest in them. It is those interest payment that are taking out so much of our governments resources, about $406 billion in 2006 compared to NASA’s measly budget of $15 billion.
Additionally, I’m not sure this article gets to the root of the problem with the American economy. The number one thing Americans should be concerned about is the sinking value of the dollar. Currently china owns about 1.4 trillion in US reserves followed by Japan at ~ .9 trillion. Due to our twin deficits, we have begun to see the value of the dollar drop to rate never seen in our lifetimes, unless you were alive during the civil war, the last time the dollar was worth less than the Canadian dollar. What happens when our creditor nations get tired with seeing their investments in dollars shrinking in real terms? Sure the t-bills are perfectly secure because we can always print more money, but they won’t be able to buy anything at the current rate of deprecation. So china decides to reduce their holdings in US dollars, followed by Japan who wants to sell off theirs before the sudden influx further weakens the exchange rate. This could ultimately cause a sort of mass selloff that, as you said, tips over the golden apple cart.
So how do we avert this problem?... back to the fundamentals.
The twin deficits refer to the current account and fiscal deficit.
Current account = BOT + unilateral transfers + DOI
-not much can be done unless you court trade sanctions or artificially intervening in the market. Not that that isn’t what china is doing by pegging the Yuan but still… if we don’t get our Wal-Mart goods there then we will get them from Malaysia or the Philippines.
Fiscal deficit = net savings + trade deficit – investment.
-save more, spend less. I guess it’s that simple. The problem is that the fed usually encourages this type of behavior by increasing interest rates. Less capital liquidity -> less capital expenditure. However, this could also cause increased capital flight and future exchange rate misery because of reduced marginal interest rates between America and other possible places of investment. It could also cause the economy to grind to a further halt… more halted then it currently is….
this is a post i wanted to put up as a reply to somebody on huffington post but my account isnt activated yet. sooo im putting it here.
Atticus
I think you make a good point about the NPV of the principle of the bonds the US is taking out to fund its ongoing operations, but I think it is very dangerous to dismiss the cost of debt outright. While the final repayment of the principle of long term bonds may be significantly reduced in comparison to present value in real terms, we are also paying interest on those bonds at all times. Without these interest payments, bonds would have a negative net present value and there would be no reason for people to invest in them. It is those interest payment that are taking out so much of our governments resources, about $406 billion in 2006 compared to NASA’s measly budget of $15 billion.
Additionally, I’m not sure this article gets to the root of the problem with the American economy. The number one thing Americans should be concerned about is the sinking value of the dollar. Currently china owns about 1.4 trillion in US reserves followed by Japan at ~ .9 trillion. Due to our twin deficits, we have begun to see the value of the dollar drop to rate never seen in our lifetimes, unless you were alive during the civil war, the last time the dollar was worth less than the Canadian dollar. What happens when our creditor nations get tired with seeing their investments in dollars shrinking in real terms? Sure the t-bills are perfectly secure because we can always print more money, but they won’t be able to buy anything at the current rate of deprecation. So china decides to reduce their holdings in US dollars, followed by Japan who wants to sell off theirs before the sudden influx further weakens the exchange rate. This could ultimately cause a sort of mass selloff that, as you said, tips over the golden apple cart.
So how do we avert this problem?... back to the fundamentals.
The twin deficits refer to the current account and fiscal deficit.
Current account = BOT + unilateral transfers + DOI
-not much can be done unless you court trade sanctions or artificially intervening in the market. Not that that isn’t what china is doing by pegging the Yuan but still… if we don’t get our Wal-Mart goods there then we will get them from Malaysia or the Philippines.
Fiscal deficit = net savings + trade deficit – investment.
-save more, spend less. I guess it’s that simple. The problem is that the fed usually encourages this type of behavior by increasing interest rates. Less capital liquidity -> less capital expenditure. However, this could also cause increased capital flight and future exchange rate misery because of reduced marginal interest rates between America and other possible places of investment. It could also cause the economy to grind to a further halt… more halted then it currently is….
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Does Friday night
So about the time I receive a text message from Mellissa asking "where are you" I realize it is pretty much hopeless. I take stock of my situation; I've got closed up shop fronts on both side of me, a dark street I believe running parallel to the kehin-tohoku between asagaya and ikebuku ro, rain, lots of rain. That's coming down at a pretty good rate at this point which leads to my soaking wet cotton zit up. Not the smartest piece of Tokyo expedition gear. Then again, when I left okikubo this morning I didn't exactly think I would be wondering the streets of Tokyo after the trains had closed. What else… oh ya I have my phone, of course, how else would I get the steady pieces of advices from Melissa such as "I think theses capsule hotels in ikebukuro" and "I think the trains are closed" … I had figured that one out on my own.
How had it taken an hour and a half to get to nishikawaguchi from Waseda? Granted its three different trains, my navigator is black out drunk, its the middle of the night, and pitch black out but still…. Really it must have been those stop offs in kuuko and kawaguchi. Wandering the streets according to my vague directions while my navigator mumbles Shumimasen! at passing drunken salary men. Oh yes and there was the fiasco with the keys... That was an awkward exchange. Um sumimasen watashino tomodachiwa kagiwo waserata. "um ya.. your friend threw his keys onto my neighbor's balcony…" "You're kidding me" "no" "…huh"
So now its 1:30… phone has duel uses. Text messaging and clock. And last my wallet with my last bit of hope, visa. I wonder into a 711, withdraw some money, and hail a taxi.
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